Jamie Schou Real Estate

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) — The value of U.S. homes grew on a monthly basis in May for the first time in nearly three years, according to 20-city index released Tuesday.The month-over-month increase was 0.5%, according to the report from financial data company Standard & Poor’s and economists Case-Shiller. It was the first increase in the monthly index since July 2006.

On an annual basis, home prices in the 20 cities fell 17.1%, but it was the fourth straight month that the year-over-year decline lessened.

0:00 /1:58Builders hope for piece of pie
“This could be an indication that home price declines are finally stabilizing,” said David Blitzer, chairman of the index committee S&P, in a prepared statement.

While acknowledging that the report was good news, Mark Zandi, chief economist for Moody’s Economy.com, downplayed the importance of a single month’s statistics.

“I think it’s a temporary respite,” he said. “It reflects the recent decline in foreclosure sales, and prices will continue to fall over the next several months.”

Robert Shiller, the Yale economist who co-founded the index and who’s famous for warning that the housing boom was, in fact, a bubble, said the decrease in foreclosure sales does show up in the index statistics as a plus for home prices. That’s one reason he did not want to sound too optimistic; foreclosures could take off again.

“And we could get more economic bad news, but it does look encouraging,” he said.

He added that he thought that Washington’s efforts have boosted the nation’s spirits, an important factor for the housing market.

“The government has done a lot to support the housing market,” he said. “Confidence has improved. People are talking about ‘green shoots.’ People are thinking it’s time the recession came to an end. The stock market is up.”

Cleveland gains: The improvement in the index was as broad as it was deep, with 13 metro areas showing gains, compared with eight in April. Two, New York and Tampa, Fla., showed no change.

The biggest winner was long-suffering Cleveland, where prices rose 4.1%. The city still falling the most was Las Vegas, where prices declined 2.6%.

The report added to the list of positive housing market indicators. These include rising new home sales, increased home building and increased pending sales.

Paul Bishop, the managing director of research for the National Association of Realtors, was glad to see the upturn but did not want to overemphasize the results of a single month, saying the economy is not out of the woods yet.

“Job losses could continue after the recession ends,” he said. “That’s where the economy intersects with consumers in the most tangible way. Until consumers have some level of confidence that the economy is improving, many will be reluctant to buy.”

Washington’s goal: Stabilizing the housing market has been a primary goal of Washington policy makers. Congress has tried to stimulate homebuying by creating a temporary tax credit of $8,000 for people who have not owned a home for at least three years.

The administration has also tried to tackle the foreclosure problem, creating a program to help mortgage borrowers avoid defaulting on their loan payments and losing their homes.

Zandi added that lenders are still figuring out the administration’s foreclosure prevention plan, and have suspended the foreclosure process for many borrowers in default. That means fewer distressed properties, which tend to bring in lower prices, than usual.

One of the most positive things the government has done, according to Shiller, was to take control of the failing mortgage companies Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.

These were government sponsored enterprises that guaranteed a flow of mortgage lending by buying or backing mortgages in the secondary market. Without government backing up these companies, mortgage lending would have dried up, which would have devastated home sales.

Lower prices: Prices have also fallen so far in so many places that it’s drawing people back into the market.

In Las Vegas, prices are off about 53% from their peak, set in August 2006. Phoenix prices are down 54%.

Overall, the 20-city index is down more than 32% from its high.

Interest rates were very low in May, which also could have helped the housing market. The rate for a 30-year mortgage was well below 5% during the month, which encouraged buyers and drove up demand.

Zandi is hopeful that the market is stabilizing. “It feels like the cycle is winding down,” he said. “I think it depends on how well the mortgage modification plan will work and I’m guessing it will work reasonably well.”

One possible scenario, according to Shiller, is that home price declines end and then nothing happens for several years, the “L-shaped” recovery.

“Then, we can stop talking about home prices and get onto more interesting topics,” he said.

Sales of newly constructed single family homes rose 11% over May, but median price fell 3%. 

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) — Sales of newly constructed single-family homes spiked 11% in June to an annualized rate of 384,000 homes.The gain over May was much greater than expected. A consensus of housing industry analysts had forecast seasonally adjusted sales of 352,000, according to Breifing.com.

However, sales are still 21% below the levels of a year ago, when new homes sold in June at an annualized rate of 488,000 Four years ago, during the height of the housing boom, the sales rate for June was 1,374,000, nearly three-and-a-half times higher than last month.

Still, the report was very positive, according to Peter Morici, an economics professor at the University of Maryland who had forecast June sales to be at the 350,000 level. “That is really good news. Considering what’s going on in existing home sales, with all the foreclosure activity sending down home prices, for new homes to jump like that is a good indicator that the economy is bottoming out.”

Builders have been more optimistic about market conditions and this report should further buoy their spirits. An index of builder confidence from the National Association of Home Builders rose to 17 this month after languishing in single-digit territory.

In June, they began building single-family housing units at an annualized rate of 470,000, a 14.4% jump over May.

Pat Newport, a housing industry analyst for IHS Global Insight, also deemed the report very good news — but is uncertain how Obama’s $8,000 tax credit for first-time homebuyers will affect the longer view.

“I only wonder how much of the increase is coming from rising demand from new homebuyers,” he said. “The tax credit is boosting demand, but what will happen when it goes away in December?”

Prices and inventory
The median price paid for a house sold in June 2009 was down about 3% to $206,200; the mean price was $276,900.

By the end of the month, the inventory of new homes had dropped to 281,000, an 8.8 month supply at current rates of sale. Last month, there were enough homes on the market to last 10.2 months at that rate.

“They have to clean out that stock to get building again,” said Morici.

“Normal” new home inventory is about 300,000, according to Newport, which we’re already below. But ,he added, that the median time to sell a home is at an all-time high of 11.8 months.

“That tells you it’s still very hard to sell a new home,” he said.

Much of that struggle is because the housing stock is concentrated in exurbs — otherwise known as McMansions far away from work. “Inventories are misaligned,” said Morici, who likened the situation to the auto industry being overstocked with large trucks and SUVs instead of fuel efficient cars.

“There’ll be a shift from far-out to closer-in and from bigger to smaller,” he said. But builders will have a hard time selling those “white elephants” and they’ll languish on the market, he predicted.

Perhaps the best news is that home construction may be ready to once again boost the economy again. “The construction-put-in-place numbers that come out next month will show that housing is starting to add to the GDP,” said Newport. “It’s been nothing but a drag on growth lately.”

Housing Experts: Now Is a Perfect Time to Buy
Don’t forget to remind potential buyers of something that is obvious to real estate professionals: Now is the time to buy, but that opportunity may be slipping away.For people who have a job and money, a dream house is within reach, writes Marc Roth, founder of Home Warranty of America and a columnist for BusinessWeek.

He points out that mortgage rates remain low, prices are still at historic lows, and the government is offering incentives for first-time homebuyers.

He also adds that the inventory of homes to buy is still large, but it is shrinking. According to the NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®, the housing inventory peaked in November 2008 at an 11-month supply. At the end of May 2009, it had fallen to a 9.6-month supply.

Roth says anyone who dallies will miss a good opportunity to buy a first home at a terrific price or go shopping for a move-up property that is a great buy.

Source: BusinessWeek.com, Marc Roth (11/17/2009)

Home Lending Rates Falling Again
Rates on 30-year fixed mortgages fell to 5.14 percent for the week ended July 16, down from 5.20 percent a week before and 6.26 percent a year earlier, Freddie Mac reports.

Interest on fixed home loans has fallen in four of the past five weeks, and Freddie Mac economist Frank Nothaft says rate activity during that time has lowered the monthly payment on a $200,000 loan by $56.

Here’s a look at how other mortgage rates performed this week:

• 15-year fixed loans fell to 4.63 percent from 4.69 percent.
• One-year adjustable-rate mortgages fell to 4.76 percent from 4.82 percent.
• Five-year hybrid ARMs bumped up a notch to 4.83 percent from 4.82 percent.

Source: Grand Junction Free Press, Wyatt Haupt Jr. (07/17/09)

Prices Slide in Wealthiest Towns
America’s high-end neighborhoods could feel the pain as homes linger on the market and prices slide.

There are more than 60,000 homes priced above $1 million listed on Realtor.com with the inventory at levels far above the national average of 10 months.

Some observers predict that big inventories in formerly protected enclaves will drive down prices as much as average prices fell in less-pricey metros a year ago. “Any [inventory] over seven months generally means falling prices,” says David Stiff, chief economist at Fiserv in Brookfield, Wis.

Multi-million dollar communities with significant risks of taking big slides are:

1. Incline Village-Crystal Bay, Nev.
2. New Vernon, N.J.
3. Alpine, N.J.
4. Sagaponack, N.Y.
5. Amagansett, N.Y.
6. Bridgehampton, N.Y.
7. Ross, Calif.
8. Old Westbury, N.Y.
9. Santa Barbara, Calif.
10. Southampton, N.Y.

Source: Forbes, Stephanie Fitch and Matthew Woolsey (07/13/2009)